Unemployment, not interest rates, is the biggest mortgage stress

Roy Morgan Research has released a survey on mortgage stress, which shows that the lowest share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ since February 2023, just prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) first rate hike.

Roy Morgan estimates that 25.9% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2025, down 2% from August 2025, and significantly below the recent peak of 30.3% in June 2024.

The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 554,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began tightening interest rates, which eventually rose from a record low 0.1% to a peak of 4.35% in February 2025.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.