Stats NZ released migration data, revealing that only 10,600 net overseas migrants arrived in New Zealand in the year to August. This net migration gain was far below the decade average of 49,000 and around 125,000 fewer than the late 2023 peak.
The fall in net overseas migration has been fueled by the exodus of New Zealand citizens.
Annual net outflows of New Zealand citizens reached a new high of (47,900), driven by increased migration departures to a record high of 73,900.
In comparison, 58,500 net non-New Zealand citizens entered in the year to August 2025, a decrease from 96,600 in the August 2024 year. Net arrrivals of non-citizens also remained above the long-term average of 47,800.
The chart below depicts the net migration flow by country of origin.
As you can see, India, China, and the Philippines had the highest net migrant arrivals in the year to July 2025.
More than half (58%) of the 47,900 New Zealand citizens who left in the year to August emigrated to Australia, according to Stats NZ.
Australia’s unemployment rate is currently around 1% lower than New Zealand’s.
As Alex Joiner from IFM Investors illustrates below, the volume of Kiwi migration to Australia has typically tracked the differential in unemployment rates between the two nations.
Australian wages are also growing at a significantly faster pace than in New Zealand, making Australia more attractive for Kiwis.
The only area where New Zealand has an advantage over Australia is with regard to housing affordability.
New Zealand home values have fallen significantly from their pandemic peak, whereas Australia’s continue to rise. New Zealand interest rates are now also lower than Australia’s.
The collapse in net overseas migration to New Zealand has also increased rental vacancy rates and lowered rents.
As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the growth in New Zealand’s dwelling stock is significantly faster than population growth, “keeping downward pressure on rents and housing prices”.
Logically, New Zealand’s superior housing affordability should help stem the loss of Kiwis to Australia. However, economic factors like high unemployment and weak wage growth are currently driving New Zealand citizens away in search of better opportunities.
