Last week’s dwelling construction data was an absolute disaster.
In the June quarter of 2025, only 40,524 homes completed construction, which was the weakest quarter of dwelling completions for 11 years (i.e., since the March quarter of 2014).
In the 2024-25 financial year, total dwelling completions fell by 2% to 174,030, from 177,600 the previous financial year.
As a result, over the first year of the National Housing Accord, which commenced on 1 July 2024, 65,970 (27%) fewer homes were built than the 240,000 annual target.
It also means that Australia will need to build around 256,000 homes annually over the next four years to meet Labor’s 1.2 million construction target.
The collapse in dwelling construction has been met with an apparent rise in demand, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reporting record net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals to Australia over the first eight months of the year.
As illustrated below, the monthly NPLT arrivals data has historically been a leading directional indicator for net overseas migration, suggesting that immigration has rebounded.
Indeed, this apparent rebound in immigration looks to be behind the recent tightening of the nation’s rental market, which has seen the vacancy rate and rental listings fall to new record lows.
Source: Cotality
As a result, Cotality reports that advertised rents, which have already risen by an extraordinary 43.8% over the past five years, are accelerating once more.
Therefore, the housing situation in Australia remains dire, as population demand continues to surpass supply, leading to a record-tight rental market.
Despite these facts, housing minister Clare O’Neil posted the following propaganda on Twitter (X) claiming that “for the first time in a decade, new homes are being built faster”, that “the only way to make homes more affordable is to build more of them”, and “we’re doing exactly that”:
Not even O’Neil’s advisory body, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC), believes that the situation will improve, given that it has forecast a 79,000 shortfall of supply over the five-year Housing Accord period:
Clare O’Neil has once again deceived Australians about housing.
