Australia’s job market is far weaker than it looks

Thursday 30 October 2025

For months, I have argued that Australia’s job market is far weaker than it appears.

Government-funded non-market jobs, particularly the expansion of the NDIS, have artificially propped up the job market.

The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that government spending on “social protection”, which encompasses social security, welfare, and disability supports, hit 4.5% of GDP in 2024-25:

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:

$24.99 / month

$249 / year

Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe

About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.