Australian Economy

Australia’s job market is far weaker than it looks

Leith van Onselen
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For months, I have argued that Australia’s job market is far weaker than it appears.

Government-funded non-market jobs, particularly the expansion of the NDIS, have artificially propped up the job market.

The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that government spending on “social protection”, which encompasses social security, welfare, and disability supports, hit 4.5% of GDP in 2024-25:

Government consumption spending
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.