DXY no bueno.
AUD even less bueno.
Gold bueno. Oil no bueno.
AI metals are confused.
Big miners breakout or false?
EM bounceback.
Junk not so much!
Yields freefall.
Stocks need a deeper pullback.
Newsflow is whacko, courtesy of ZH. Washington shutdown.
Geopolitical risk
Weak Macro
Hawkish FedSpeak
Waller sounded less dovish than normal:
“You don’t want to make a mistake, so the way to avoid that is to go cautiously or carefully and do 25, wait and see what happens, and then you can get a better idea of what to do,” Waller said Thursday during an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Regional bank angst
US funding market stress
The whole world now has Trump countertransference. For those who don’t know, countertransference is your emotional response to somebody else’s angst.
If you can read it without reacting, it is a very powerful tool in negotiating the room.
I don’t think the market can read it, so we have wild moves everywhere in a Trump guessing game that is tearing holes in markets.
- Gold is hysterical.
- Stocks are at extreme highs and fear simultaneously.
- Geopolitics is at once meaningless (in Palestine) and much worse than advertised (in Ukraine).
- US/China relations are convulsed by the two guys who probably know the least about the bad news.
- US banks are stressed amid no macro imbalances.
- Markets bid everything, everywhere, all at once, while liquidity dries up.
It’s the inside of Trump’s head writ large. I can’t see how AUD can flourish in that swamp.
