Cotality has released its September housing market report, which contains more bad news for renters.
The national rental vacancy rate has fallen to a fresh record low of only 1.4%, according to Cotality, which has driven a reacceleration in rental growth.
“The national vacancy rate slipped to a new record low of 1.4% in September, with only 1.1% of Australian units and 1.7% of houses estimated to be vacant and available for lease in September”, Cotality reported.
“The renewed downtrend in rental vacancies has been accompanied by a re-acceleration in rental growth. The national Rental Index rose half a per cent in seasonally adjusted terms through September, taking the quarterly change to 1.4%, the highest since June last year”.
Source: Cotality
Commensurate with the record decline in the national vacancy rate, the number of homes listed for rent has collapsed to a record low, down 17.4% year-on-year nationally:
Source: Cotality
“The bad news for renters is that rental listings are continuing to trend lower”, noted Tim Lawless, director of research at Cotality. “Over the four weeks ending September 28th, the number of rental properties listed for rent nationally was tracking around 25% below the previous five-year average”.
Lawless also warned that the resurgence in rents will put upward pressure on CPI inflation.
“Given the large weighting rental costs have in the consumer price index, and the lead-lag relationship between Cotality’s rent value index and CPI rent measure, the recent re-acceleration in rents could have implications for inflation down the track”, noted Lawless.
The decline in the rental vacancy rate and the reacceleration of rents correspond with the surge in net permanent and long-term arrivals recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
As illustrated below by Tarric Brooker, there were a record 348,000 net permanent and long-term arrivals in the first seven months of 2025.
As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the surge in net permanent and long-term arrivals suggests that net overseas migration into Australia has reaccelerated.
In summary, demand for rental housing has reaccelerated, pushing vacancy rates to record lows and driving rental growth higher.
