Recession ends with GDP boost

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the national accounts for Q2 2025, which revealed stronger than expected growth.

Analysts had tipped a 0.4% rise in headline GDP, and the RBA had forecast 0.5% growth. However, a 0.6% rise was recorded, led by household and government spending.

Headline GDP grew by 1.8% over the 2024-25 financial year.

The long, grinding per capita recession ended with a 0.2% rise in GDP per capita in Q2 and a 0.2% increase year-on-year.

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Tom Lay, ABS head of national accounts, said: “Economic growth rebounded in the June quarter following subdued growth in the March quarter, which was heavily impacted by weather events”.

“Domestic final demand was the main driver of growth led by household and government spending. Public investment was the largest detractor from growth”.

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“Net trade also contributed to GDP growth, led by exports of mining commodities”.

Contributions to GDP

Despite the rebound, Australia’s per capita GDP remains 1.3% below where it was when the Albanese government came to office.

Real GDP per capita
About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.