After years of watching residents flee to the north, we ‘Mexicans’ in Victoria are beginning to see a net flow of Queenslanders down south.
Last week’s Q1 2025 population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, Victoria recorded a net inflow of interstate migration.
Sure, it was small, with only 440 people. However, this net inflow occurred in the same quarter that Queensland’s interstate migration fell to its lowest level since 2016.
The change in migration rates makes sense when you consider the differences in home values between Victoria and Queensland.
The following chart, compiled from PropTrack data, shows that Brisbane dwelling values have risen by 92% over the five years to August, versus a 19.3% rise in Melbourne.
Likewise, Regional Queensland dwelling values jumped by 91% over the past five years, versus a 39.5% rise for Regional Victoria.
Queensland’s housing market has shifted from one of the country’s most inexpensive at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic to the second most expensive, behind New South Wales.
Brisbane’s median dwelling value of $936,000 was $106,000 (13%) higher than Melbourne’s median dwelling value as of August 31, 2025.
As of August 31, 2025, Regional Queensland’s median dwelling value of $738,000 was $177,000 (32%) greater than Regional Victoria’s median dwelling value.
Domain data also shows that Brisbane’s price premium to Melbourne is tracking at its highest level since the late 1990s:
Canstar estimates that Queenslanders need to earn approximately $100,000 more per year to afford a typical home than before the pandemic, highlighting the impact of Queensland’s deteriorating affordability.
Brisbane also ranked just behind Sydney in terms of the extra income required per household since the COVID-19 pandemic.
It, therefore, appears that Queenslanders are starting to migrate south to Victoria in search of more affordable housing.
