Panic buyers drive housing market upswing

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Australia’s housing market continues to heat up.

August’s national monthly average final auction clearance rate lifted to 69%, which was the strongest result since February 2024.

Capital city auction celarances versus prices

This weekend’s preliminary auction results from Cotality continued the run of strong results, with 75.0% of auctions selling nationally based on early figures.

Preliminary auction results

Source: Cotality

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This marked the fourth straight week where the combined capitals preliminary clearance rate was at or above 75.0%.

Sydney continued to dominate the nation’s auction market, with 78.0% of homes clearing based on early results.

As illustrated below, Sydney’s average final clearance rate in August was 72%, the strongest result since February 2024.

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Sydney auction market

Melbourne’s auction market was softer, recording a preliminary clearance rate of 73.2%. This was the lowest result in four weeks, but also the 19th consecutive week where the preliminary clearance rate has held at 70% or higher.

Melbourne’s average final auction clearance rate was 68% in August, down from 69% in July.

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Melbourne auction versus prices

The stronger auction market in Sydney helps to explain why Cotality’s daily dwelling values index is showing significantly stronger value growth for Sydney than Melbourne.

Cotality 28-day change
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Commenting on the state of the market, prominent Sydney-based real estate agent and auctioneer Tom Panos believes that homebuyers have “pressed the buy button” in order to get into the market before the Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers takes effect on 1 October.

“Today [Saturday] there were 10 auctions that I conducted and all 10 properties have sold”, Panos said in his weekly market wrap on YouTube.

“It does not surprise me because there are a lot of buyers who have pressed the buy button now. They were doing their due diligence, but now they’ve moved from due diligence and they’re buying”.

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“Let me tell you that quite a few buyers said to me today that the reason that they bought… is that they believe that they will have significantly more buyers to compete with after October”.

“Half the properties I did today were under the $1.5 million mark, which are the properties that actually qualify for the 5% first home buyers deposit guarantee, which means that you don’t have to take out mortgage insurance”, Panos said.

Panos added that there are a “group of vendors at the moment who are scheduled to be auctioned on the 27th of September”.

However, “a lot of those are actually contemplating now delaying their auction until October with the view that they will actually have more people to bid on their property”.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.