New Zealand's endless recession

The Reserve Bank GDP nowcast, released last Friday, forecast that New Zealand’s GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q2 2025.

The Reserve Bank’s nowcast was revised lower following the final partial GDP indicators released last week, showing a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector in Q2 and negligible growth in a range of services industries.

On Thursday, Stats NZ released the Q2 national accounts, which revealed a sharper than expected contraction in gross domestic product (GDP).

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

New Zealand’s endless recession