Statistics New Zealand this week released migration data, which showed that only 13,066 net overseas migrants landed in New Zealand in the year to July. This was well below the decade average of 49,000 and more than 120,000 lower than the late 2023 peak.
The decline in net overseas migration has been driven by the exodus of New Zealand citizens.
Annual net outflows of New Zealand citizens hit fresh record highs (47,600), driven by strengthening migration departures to a record high of 73,480.
By contrast, 60,200 net non-New Zealand citizens arrived in the year to July 2025, down from a net migration gain of 115,800 in the June 2024 year.
The following chart shows the net migration flow by country of origin:
As you can see, India, China, and the Philippines dominated net migrant arrivals in the year to July 2025.
Of the 47,600 New Zealand citizens that departed in the year to July, most emigrated to Australia.
Bernard Hickey at The Kākā noted that “a record-high 201 New Zealanders emigrated each day on average in the year to the end of July, with 58% going to Australia”.
The exodus is primarily because “Australia’s labour market is now accelerating ahead of New Zealand’s”, according to Hickey.
Indeed, Australia’s unemployment rate is around 1% lower than New Zealand’s.
As illustrated by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors below, migration to Australia has historically tracked the differential unemployment rates between the two nations.
Australian wages are also growing at a much faster pace than in Australia.
“Many of those who have departed our shores in recent years have headed to Australia. That reflects Australia’s stronger labour market and the relatively unrestricted ability to move between our countries”, noted Westpac NZ senior economist Satish Ranchhod.
Housing is the one area in which New Zealand provides more promise than Australia.
Unlike Australia, housing prices in New Zealand have declined significantly since their post-pandemic high and are tracking at late 2019 levels in real terms.
Rents, as measured by newly lodged rental bonds, have similarly declined in New Zealand.
Superior housing affordability should logically make New Zealand more appealing to younger generations, ultimately helping to prevent the loss of Kiwis to Australia.
