The US is having a grown-up jobs debate that would serve Australia well (or it would be if the Child President didn’t sack everybody he disliked). Goldman is typical.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward revision on the order of 550-950k (or a 45-80k downward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2024-March 2025)….Undercounting of unauthorized workers in the benchmark should be less of an issue going forward, reflecting the sharp slowdown in immigration.
…as we noted last year, since the QCEW is based on unemployment insurance records, it likely excludes most unauthorized immigrants, who contributed strongly to employment growth over the last few years. Undercounting of unauthorized workers should be less of an issue going forward given the sharp slowdown in immigration.
