Goldman with the note.
As we flagged in a note earlier this year, spending on the NDIS has risen from 0% of GDP a decade ago to almost 2% of GDP currently (~A$50bn), around double initial projections, with the overshoot largely driven by higher take-up rates among children with autism and psychosocial conditions.
While the Government implemented some reforms last year to slow spending growth to 8% per year going forward, Health Minister Butler flagged that the Government would make additional changes over the next few years to shift children with mild autism and psychosocial conditions off the NDIS and onto a different program starting in 2027.
