Real wages may take another decade to recover

Australian real wages recorded a record 7.3% decline between mid-2020 and the September quarter of 2023. They have since recorded a modest 1.3% rebound, meaning that real wages remained 6.0% below their peak as of mid-2025.

The August Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) forecast that real wages would remain 5.5% below their peak at the end of 2027, tracking just above where they were at the end of 2011.

This means that by the end of 2027, real wages will be tracking at the same level as 16 years ago, should the RBA’s forecasts come to fruition.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.