Queenslanders may start fleeing to Victoria

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Since the pandemic, Queensland has been a magnet for residents of southern states, including Victoria.

Over the five years to Q4 2024, 163,200 residents from other states relocated to Queensland.

QLD population change

Many of these residents came from Victoria, which lost 82,130 net residents over the same period.

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VIC population change

The spike in net interstate migration into Queensland, along with the loss from Victoria, contributed to a significant divergence in dwelling value growth.

Melbourne & Brisbane dwelling values
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According to PropTrack, Brisbane dwelling values surged by 90.3% over the past five years, compared to only a 19.2% increase in Melbourne.

Likewise. Regional Queensland dwelling values jumped by 90.3% over the past five years versus a 40.0% rise for Regional Victoria.

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As a result, Queensland has transformed from having one of the nation’s most affordable housing markets at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic into the second most expensive.

Brisbane’s median dwelling value of $919,000 was $95,000 (11.5%) more expensive than Melbourne’s median dwelling value as of 31 July 2025.

Regional Queensland’s median dwelling value of $728,000 was $172,000 (31%) more expensive than Regional Victoria’s median dwelling value as of 31 July 2025.

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Queensland’s poor affordability is starting to bite, with recent Canstar research noting that Queenslanders needed to earn around $100,000 more a year to afford a typical home than before the pandemic.

Brisbane also placed just behind Sydney in terms of the extra income required per household since Covid-19.

How long will it be before Queenslanders begin migrating south to Victoria in search of more affordable housing?

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.