Measuring the AI bubble

Advertisement

It is big. Very big. The Market Ear. But it can get bigger! Or not…


A period of sorting and cleansing is underway 

For a time, the dominant narrative suggested that AGI was only two or three years away — that “magic AI” would emerge and rapidly take off into superintelligence. As discussed on the latest All-In podcast, the GPT-5’s release, which fell short of those lofty expectations, has tempered that view. What we see instead is that progress is more incremental than revolutionary. It takes significant prompting, validation, and human oversight to generate consistent value. As the development of the tech will be more “normal”, we can apply a more normal logic to it. Some narratives of massive hype are overdone. A period of sorting and cleansing is underway. On that theme, here are some important “gap” charts as it relates to AI.

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:
Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.