What now for tariffs?

Monday 7 July 2025

Morgan Stanley with the note.

The uncertainty of application of tariffs is one reason we have continually called for patience to see the affect of tariffs in hard data.

Our models predict that inflation will take approximately four months to see the full effects of tariffs and potentially even eight moths for growth to react accordingly.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.