Victoria disease spreads coast-to-coast

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Victoria disease is the economic malady brought on by the immigration-led labour market expansion economic model run flat out by Labor governments.

It puts population growth at the centre of GDP, which leads to endemic crush loading of all public services—including housing, transport, health, and education—driving up public debt as state governments fruitlessly attempt to keep pace without the revenues to do so.

In turn, these deficits crowd out the private sector and markets, turbocharging capital shallowing and corruption, leading to a collapse in productivity.

Taxes and rent-seeking rise inexorably, eroding competitiveness, consumption, and business investment.

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Eventually, Victoria disease kills the economic host as the economy sickens around a thickly congested, overcrowding mucus that strangles activity.

Victoria has been dying of this economic model for over a decade, but now it is spreading north and south to other states.

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In due course, it will overwhelm Western states, too, as their mining bounty fades away with bulk commodities.

A few charts from ANZ tell the story. All are underperforming historic averages.

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Victoria shows the profile.

NSW is sickening second fastest.

QLD is showing strong symptoms.

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So is SA.

And WA.

The whole of Australia will soon have Victoria disease.

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We need revived Coalition governments with visions for market reform.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.