Is immigration into Australia surging or falling?

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released monthly data on permanent and long-term arrivals, which suggested that net overseas migration (NOM) may have surged back over the first half of 2025.

The 245,900 net arrivals recorded over the first five months of 2025 were the highest on record, surpassing last year’s record of 242,800 and dwarfing the 151,500 net arrivals over the same period in 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Tarric Brooker produced the following chart over the weekend, plotting the years to May dating back to the mid-1990s. As you can see, 2025’s figure of 245,900 is ‘off-the-charts.’

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.