In December 2024, a joint report from UNSW and Homelessness Australia claimed that 10,000 extra Australians were becoming homeless each month.
“Since 2020, rents have risen at rates unseen since 2008. During the period March 2020 to June 2024, the median advertised weekly rent for all property types across all cities and regions rose from $413 to $624—a 51% increase”, the report said.
“The early 2020s have also seen rental vacancy rates plummet across Australia. Since 2022 rates in most locations have remained at close to rock bottom levels of 1-2%. The combination of reduced affordability and low vacancy rates has exacerbated risk of homelessness for low income and vulnerable households”.
A new report from housing lobby Everybody’s Home claims that the number of people accessing homelessness services each month has increased by 10% since Labor was elected in May 2022, reaching its “worst levels in living memory”.
Social housing has also declined to around 4% of all homes in 2024, down from 4.7% in 2013.
Homelessness Australia’s chief executive Kate Colvin said the shortage of reasonably priced rentals meant people were being forced into homelessness.
Source: Everybody’s Home
There are two key issues at play.
First, the deluge of net overseas migrants to Australia has increased demand for rental homes.
As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the number of temporary visa holders in Australia has soared to record levels:
This surge in temporary visa holders has been met with a commensurate jump in residential asking rents:
Second, the Albanese government has increased the humanitarian migrant intake to a record 20,000 per year, from under 14,000 previously.
The Albanese government has also set aside 26,500 special humanitarian places for Afghan refugees.
Refugees obviously increase the demand for social housing, which is already under stress from a lack of supply and endless immigration-driven population growth.
In 2024, one new social housing unit was built for every 169 new residents in Australia. This ratio has gotten perpetually worse since the mid-1990s, reflecting the decline in construction amid the booming population.
To exacerbate the situation, the Australian Greens have called for the humanitarian intake to be lifted to 50,000 places a year, which would make the social housing shortage far worse.
The reality is that so long as Australia maintains a high immigration policy, Australia’s rental and homelessness crises will worsen.
Remember, the Centre for Population projects that Australia’s population will expand by 13.5 million people (~50%) in only 40 years, which is equivalent to adding another Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane to the current population.
Source: Centre for Population (December 2024)
Australia will never build enough homes or infrastructure to keep pace with such extreme population growth.
