DXY held its ground last night.
So did AUD.
Lead boots are marching on.
Oil had a little pop going into OPEC.
Another copper bubble is here.
Big miners ripped within the monster bear.
EM yawn.
Junk yawn.
The curve flattened on bad data.
Stocks only go up.
ADP was our before tomorrow’s BLS and threw up a shocker.
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 33,000 Jobs in June; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%
“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
“Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.”
That makes sense. Goldman hosed it.
From Goldman Sachs:
We do not place much weight on the ADP miss because of ADP’s limited correlation with BLS private payrolls over the last few years. We left our forecast for June nonfarm payroll growth unchanged at +85k ahead of tomorrow’s release. … We expect payroll growth to slow from its 135k 3-month average because big data indicators were soft … We forecast that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%—a low bar from an unrounded 4.24%—reflecting sequential increases in other measures of labor market slack.
emphasis added
As did BofA:
June NFP are likely to rise by 95k. Although the initial claims increase in recent weeks can be attributed to seasonal volatility, continuing claims were also high during the survey week. We also see headwinds from weak college graduates hiring and summer job cuts for education & health workers. Additionally, leisure & hospitality job growth tends to slow in June when Memorial Day falls relatively earlier in the month in May (like this year). We expect the u-rate to rise a tenth to 4.3%.
ADP is low correlation with tomorrow’s NFP but it is not no correlation.
It makes sense that US business has paused hiring as tries to make sense tariffs now and future.
I’m not dismissing it and an NFP miss of this scale could upset the AUD rally if markets get spooked by recession risk.
That said, I never trade employment reports, as a rule.
They are too volatile and fiddled.
