Who would want to be a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer in Australia?
Not only are they dealing with intense competition from online behemoths like Amazon, Temu, and Shein, but they are still facing sagging sales growth.
The latest retail trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) highlights the point, with retail sales volumes rising by only 0.3% in the year to June.
However, with Australia’s resident population rising by an estimated 0.4% in Q2 2025, this means that retail sales again contracted on a per capita basis.
As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, retail sales volumes have been stuck in a per capita recession for the better part of two years:
The below chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows the decline in per capita retail sales more clearly:
Indeed, Joiner noted via Twitter (X) that “it is population growth that is the retailer’s best friend”.
In fact, population growth (immigration) is the only thing driving growth.
Even so, the 0.3% rise in volumes over the quarter should at least add modestly to Q2 GDP growth. Sales volumes were also higher than economists had expected.
The result suggests that the two rate cuts delivered by the RBA are having an impact. Be grateful for small mercies.
