Aussie leading index sinks into the bog

Wednesday 23 July 2025

Westpac with the note.

Leading Index growth rate drops to 0.03% in June.
Main drag coming from commodity prices, sentiment and hours worked.
Detail suggests some near-term fragility if recent supports from financial markets, interest rate expectations and US growth fall away..

The recovery that was gaining traction through the second half of 2024 has stalled in the first half of 2025. While the latest Leading Index growth rate is not weak, the current ‘around trend’ read is a clear step-down from the modestly above-trend growth momentum evident at the start of the year.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.