Xi’s coming south with aircraft carriers

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Following the recent practice bombing of every major Australian city by a nuclear-capable flotilla of Chinese warships, Japan has notified allies that Xi’s coming south in other ways as well.

Japan said it observed two Chinese aircraft carriers and supporting warships operating simultaneously near remote Japanese islands in the Pacific Ocean for the first time, a new demonstration of Beijing’s advancing naval capabilities.

The aircraft carrier Shandong was seen sailing into the Pacific at the weekend and identified on Monday conducting fighter jet and helicopter take-off and landing training, according to Japan’s Joint Staff Office. That was occurring inside the exclusive economic zone around the Japanese atoll of Okinotori, around 1,740 km south of Tokyo, the office said.

On Saturday the carrier Liaoning was seen inside the EEZ of the uninhabited Japanese island of Minamitori, more than 1,800 km southeast of Tokyo, and remained in the region with other warships on Sunday, the Joint Staff Office said earlier.

I’ve always found the notion of the “island chains” as barriers to the Pacific for the PLAN a bit silly. China has an enormous coastline and has easy access to the Pacific via multiple channels if it has the capability.

That is so long as it has the hardware to fight on multiple fronts, the chain does not exist.

That is what is concerning about these carriers coming south. There are thought to be another three carriers in planning, including nuclear-powered, by the early 2030s.

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Xi’s coming south, ready or not.

More likely not, with Albo in charge. FT.

The Pentagon has launched a review of the 2021 Aukus submarine deal with the UK and Australia, throwing the security pact into doubt at a time of heightened tension with China. The review to determine whether the US should scrap the project is being led by Elbridge Colby, a top defence department official who previously expressed scepticism about Aukus, according to six people familiar with the matter. Ending the submarine and advanced technology development agreement would destroy a pillar of security co-operation between the allies.

In March, Colby said it would be “great” for Australia to have SSNs but cautioned there was a “very real threat of a conflict in the coming years” and that US SSNs would be “absolutely essential” to defend Taiwan.

Sceptics of the nuclear technology-sharing pact have also questioned whether the US should help Australia obtain the submarines without an explicit commitment to use them in any war with China.

…John Lee, an Australia defence expert at the Hudson Institute, said pressure was increasing on Canberra because the US was focusing on deterring China from invading Taiwan this decade. He added that Australia’s navy would be rapidly weakened if it did not increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP.

Why stick with AUKUS if we aren’t even willing to defend ourselves?

Pretty basic math.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.