NDIS delivers artificial jobs boom

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Last week, CBA economist Harry Ottley reported on the quarterly labour market account from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which showed that 60% of the nation’s job growth since the beginning of the pandemic has come from the non-market (government-aligned) sector. Over the past two years, the non-market sector accounted for 80% of jobs created.

Non-market vs market jobs

The ABS released quarterly data on Thursday, breaking down jobs by broad industry classification.

As illustrated in the next chart, the Healthcare & Social Assistance industry led job growth, adding 138,900 (42.5%) of 326,500 jobs created in the year to May 2025.

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Annual jobs

Since the commencement of the pandemic in February 2020, the Healthcare & Social Assistance industry added 603,500 (35%) of 1,717,000 jobs created.

Jobs created since Covid
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The following chart shows that the Healthcare & Social Assistance industry’s share of jobs has increased to 16%, up from 14% at the start of the pandemic and 10% twenty years ago.

Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro created the following chart showing that aged and disability carers have driven the increase in Healthcare & Social Assistance industry jobs.

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Carer employment

The bulk of these carer jobs obviously relate to the NDIS, which has seen an explosion in funding over recent years to nearly $50 billion.

NDIS
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The NDIS is the primary factor contributing to Australia’s artificially low unemployment rate of 4.1%. The government job printer has been running overtime.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.