CBA senior economist Stephen Wu created the following chart showing the divergence between various population measures:
According to Wu:
Next week’s National Accounts release (4/6) will contain an updated estimate of population growth, which is driven by net overseas migration (NOM). The already-released retail trade data show estimates of population growth will be downwardly revised over 2024.
The cumulative revision will see a ¼ point reduction in annual population growth over Q4 24 to 1.75% from 2.0%. This will likely see some modest upward revisions to GDP per capita outcomes.
For Q1 25, the retail trade data imply a 0.4%/qtr lift in population, little changed from the Q4 24 outcome, to see the annual rate decline further to 1.7%.
This contrasts, however, with the overseas arrivals data, as the Chart of the Week shows. Net permanent and long-term arrivals have started rising again over the past few months. There has been an increase in arrivals and a decrease in departures.
Long-term movement is defined as a duration of stay (or absence) of one year or more, as recorded on passenger cards or is derived. Overseas migration is defined under the 12/16 month rule, where a duration of stay (or absence) of 12 months or more out of 16 months is required.
I am not so sure that the retail trade data necessarily implies that Australia’s population growth will be revised lower.
The civilian population aged 15-plus, reported in the monthly labour force release has accelerated.
As illustrated below, the labour force release suggests that Australia’s population grew by 0.65% in the three months to April, equating to a population increase of 147,000 people (annualised rate of ~588,000):
The annual rate of growth in the 15-plus population also ticked up to 2.1% (471,000) in April, according to the labour force survey:
Alex Joiner from IFM Investors showed that both net permanent and long-term arrivals and the civilian population have ticked higher in 2025:
This, in turn, has cast doubt on the federal budget’s forecasts for net overseas migration.
Clearly, there is a lot of inconsistency with the ABS’ various measures of population growth.
It will be interesting to see what this week’s Q1 2025 national accounts reports, followed by the official Q4 2024 population statistics later in the month.
