ANZ has a good idea.
- Property construction will decline another 30% to 580 million m2 by 2035 in our baseline scenario.
- Over 50% of new demand will stem from upgrading, instead of urbanisation.
- Urban renewal is unlikely to contribute much to the sector.
- Property rent rather than property price will be crucial to stabilise the sector, because rent will account for 75% of value added of the sector.
That seems pretty gloomy. But it makes one rosy assumption. Today, there is a large gap between sales (which are down about half) and starts (which are down about three-quarters).
