DXY appears ready to crack. I would say this will be its last leg down before Fed cuts arrive and do the opposite later this year.
AUD is being powered by the big short.
Apparent in CFTC.
Lead boots are not much help, though.
I’m a seller into the next god leg higher. Oil bottomed with a premium intact.
Metals meh.
This is a true bear market. Stay clear.
It’s not your Daddy’s EM rally.
Could junk break out? Signal: Fed cuts.
Steepening continues.
Stocks new era of lower multiples? In your dreams, buddy.
It appears nobody believes Jay Powell anymore.
“If it turns out that inflation pressures do remain contained, then we will get to a place where we cut rates, sooner rather than later,” Powell said in response to a question about the possibility of a rate cut next month during a House Financial Services Committee hearing. “But I wouldn’t want to point to a particular meeting. I don’t think we need to be in any rush because the economy is still strong.”
“The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level,” Powell said. “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
The market is running anyway on inflation being temporary and the tax cuts to come. None of it looks overly convincing, but the Trump TACO is in complete control now. When the tariff deadlines end, who thinks Trump will play it tough after this? Americans don’t want higher tariffs and lower stocks. Nor do they want higher oil.
They want higher stocks and lower oil, and the TACO will give it to them.
Until somebody stops him (ie the bond market).
AUD up for one more leg.
