Australian house prices soar into winter

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Cotality’s preliminary auction report revealed that the national clearance rate was 73.9% this weekend, which is the highest preliminary result since July 2024.

Preliminary auction results

Source: Cotality

Melbourne recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 76.6%, which is the highest since May 2023.

Sydney’s clearance rate of 73.5% was the city’s highest since the week ending 23 February 2025, following the first interest rate cut.

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Cotality’s daily dwelling values index has also bounced. At the aggregate 5-city level, values have risen by 0.6% over the past 28 days, which is the highest rate of growth since July 2024.

Cotality 28-day change

As shown above, Sydney dwelling values rose by 0.7% over the past 28 days, which is the strongest rate of growth since March 2025, immediately following the first rate cut.

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Melbourne values have risen by 0.5% over the past 28 days, which is the strongest rate of growth since April 2025.

Financial markets have ascribed a 78% chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting the official cash rate by 0.25% at its July meeting.

Chance of interest rate cut
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Financial markets then expect a further two 0.25% rate cuts this year, taking the official cash rate to 3.10% by year’s end.

RBA market pricing

If these rate cuts come to fruition, it will obviously provide further stimulus to the market.

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The Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers, set to take effect from 1 January 2026, will provide further stimulus.

All signs are currently pointing to another boom in house prices, which will make Australian housing even more structurally unaffordable.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.