DXY weak but holding.
The AUD tractor climbs on.
Lead boots have stalled.
Machines are chasing oil, expect up, then down again.
Metals no bueno.
Miners are terrible.
EM trying but tied to DXY.
Yields sliding a little again.
Stocks to the moon!
I still think we’re headed into a combined US/China slowdown. I do not expect much from today’s talks.
The Trump TACO is on green, so he is unlikely to give ground. China has already sent its exports elsewhere, at a price.
Unless or until we get some really decent US economic weakness, such as that on display in Australia right now, the path remains slowly down for DXY and up for AUD.
Modest US economic weakness would accelerate that as Fed cuts were celebrated.
We’ll need to see bad data, enough to sink EPS, to change the path back to a safe haven flow into DXY and risk off for AUD.
Until then, AUD is Forrest Gump or, perhaps more appropriately, the local real-life version, Cliff Young, a not-all-there weirdo that keeps pounding uphill no matter what.
