Australian dollar shot down by rumours of war

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DXY is still sinking.

But AUD did as well.

Lead boots are struggling.

Oil nutso on Middle East was rumours and the machine bid.

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Metals meh.

Miners meh.

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EM breakout. Needs lower DXY to roll.

Junk liked US inflation.

So did yields.

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Stocks stopped.

The FT has rumours.

It was not clear what caused the US to authorise military dependants to voluntarily leave the region. A UK government official said that it was not following the US lead for its own forces in the region, but was keeping its position under review.

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Not sure what we can do with that.

Meanwhile, US inflation just refuses to bounce with headline and core both up just 0.1% in May.

Headline is all about oil disinflation.

Core is all about housing disinfation.

If the inflation underperformance continues, AUD will keep grinding higher.

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With the exception of some unexpected oil war, that’s the base case

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.