DXY went nowhere.
AUD recovered some.
Lead boots are going sideways.
Oil short?
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Metals bifurcating.
Biug miner bear one for the ages.
EM meh.
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Junk hasn’t budged.
Long end sort of OK.
Stocks nothing burger.
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Here are the Fed headlines.
- *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE
- *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST STILL SHOWS 50 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2025
- *FED LOWERS 2025 GDP ESTIMATE TO 1.4%, LIFTS INFLATION TO 3%
- *FED: UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTLOOK HAS DIMINISHED, STILL ELEVATED
- *FED’S POWELL: ECONOMY IS IN SOLID POSITION
- *POWELL: CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY WELL POSITIONED TO RESPOND
- *POWELL: LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED SOLID
- *POWELL: NEAR-TERM INF. EXPECTATIONS HAVE MOVED UP RECENTLY
- *POWELL: CHANGES TO TRADE, FISCAL POLICIES REMAIN UNCERTAIN
- *POWELL: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT TO LEARN MORE BEFORE ADJUSTING
- *POWELL: MANY COMPANIES EXPECT TO PASS ON TARIFF COSTS
- *POWELL: SIZE, AMOUNT, DURATION OF TARIFFS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
- *POWELL: ECONOMY HAS BEEN RESILIENT, PARTLY DUE TO FED STANCE
It’s a very obvious holding pattern for now, which makes perfect sense. Trump’s whinging about it is ridiculous given it is his screw-ups that have injected such inflationary uncertainty.
The Fed still sees two and a bit cuts by year-end on fading growth, then more in 2026.
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It’s not an especially aggressive path for easing that is laid out, so weakness in the DXY will have come from fiscal and Trump blundering.
Should be plenty to keep the AUD grinding higher.
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