Australian dollar hits ceiling as US economy hits wall

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DXY is breaking down again.

AUD at the top of the range.

Lead boots no more.

Gold poised for more. Oil bought the fact.

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Metals are eyeing DXY.

Nothing can save big miners.

EM meh.

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Junk is worried.

Yields are up as DXY is down. Markets HATE Trump tariffs.

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Stocks eked out gains.

The ISM has hit a wall:

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the third consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point lower compared to the 48.7 percent recorded in April. 

Every time Trump even mentions a tariff now (yesterday being steel), DXY falls and yields rise, the exact EM crisis pattern that choked Trump off the tariff war in the first place.

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The Trump TACO is made up of these two halves, and they appear entrenched.

Likewise, AUD, which will rise whenever tariffs are mentioned and fall whenever the TACO returns.

Part of the deal appears close to a dead duck.

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AUD will grind higher.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.