Australian dollar Goldilocks

Advertisement

DXY held on Friday night.

AUD could not break higher.

Lead boots still plodding upwards.

Gold sagged. Oil bounce looks technical to me.

Advertisement

Metals no bueno.

Big bear rolls on.

EM maybe.

Advertisement

Junk meh.

Yields up.

Stocks upper.

Advertisement

The US jobs report was a Goldilocks scenario, so it did not change the trends.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.

…The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 65,000, from +185,000 to +120,000, and the change for April was revised down by 30,000, from +177,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 95,000 lower than previously reported.

There is pressure at the margin.

Advertisement

But the dramatic reduction in immigration is supporting wages growth.

The US economy is in a plod now that will likely go on unless or until the child president changes course. The forthcoming tax cuts will help, but are probably not a game-changer. AI and fatty drugs might be, but that will take time.

Advertisement

A slow grind up for AUD looks like the Goldilocks scenario.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.