DXY is poised to go lower.
AUD is counting down to lift off.
CNY is a tailwind now.
Oil and gold wait.
Metals still no bueno.
Big miners meh.
EM warming to DXY.
Junk meh.
Yields rebounded.
Stocks nervy into the NFP.
A couple of previews. Goldman.
While the employment component of the ISM services index improved, it remained at a weak level and the ADP measure of job growth was much weaker than expected. We have lowered our forecast for nonfarm payroll growth by 15k to +110k, below consensus of +126k.
BofA.
Payrolls are likely to rise by a stable 150k after coming in at 177k in April. This is slightly higher than consensus expectations of 130k. Claims in the survey week remained at muted levels. Firms likely paused the hiring of trade & transportation workers after the front-loading driven increase in the previous months. But given elevated uncertainty about the steady state on tariff policy, we don’t think they would have already started shedding workers. Risks are to the downside, in our view. We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.2%.
Anything weak and the looming breakouts will give AUD a good run against its shorts.
But, be aware that the DXY position is even shorter so anything above will trigger a big short squeeze.
I favour a weak report but never invest following unemployment reports. They are too random.
Regardless, the AUD trend higher is intact.
