When will Australian real wages recover?

Friday 9 May 2025

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) forecast that by Q2 2027, Australian real wages would be 5.9% below the Q2 2020 peak, tracking around the same level as December 2011.

Extrapolating the RBA’s forecast suggests that Australian real wages may not recover to the Q2 2020 peak until around 2040.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver is more optimistic, forecasting that Australia’s real wages will recover by 2032.

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:

$24.99 / month

$249 / year

Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe

About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.