What’s behind the surge in cost of living?

Advertisement

Australian households have suffered one of the largest declines in real disposable incomes in the developed world.

Real HDI per capita

The Q4 2024 national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that real per capita household disposable income had declined by around 8% from its mid-2022 peak, the sharpest decline on record.

Real per capita household disposable income
Advertisement

The ABS released its cost of living indices for Q1 2025, which showed that working Australians continue to be hard hit.

As the following chart from Greg Jericho shows, working Australian households experienced a 3.4% rise in their cost of living in the year to March 2025, well above the 2.4% rise in CPI inflation.

Cost of living Q1 2025
Advertisement

Since Q1 2022, Jericho shows that employee household cost of living surged by 20.7%, easily beating the 13.6% rise in CPI inflation over that period.

Out of all household types, employee households experienced the largest increase in cost of living over this period.

Advertisement
Mortgage interest payments

The main drag on employee cost of living has come from the surge in mortgage payments owing to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate rises.

As shown by Jericho below, nearly half of the 20.7% increase in employee household cost of living has come from rising mortgage payments.

Advertisement
growth in cost of living

Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Australian households have experienced one of the largest rises in debt repayments in the world.

Debt repayments
Advertisement

The good news is that the RBA is tipped to cut the official cash rate another 1.0% by the end of 2025.

RBA rate tracker

If these cuts come to fruition, they will reduce mortgage repayments and ease the cost of living for employee households.

Advertisement
About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.