Victoria is a giant economic sinkhole

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Victoria has become an economic leech on the nation.

In 2024-25, Victoria received a massive $3.8 billion boost in its GST, whereas Queensland lost $384 million and NSW lost $188 million.

GST distribution

Victoria also received $411 million in additional grants from the Commonwealth in 2024-25.

For 2025–2026, Victoria’s GST allocation was increased again by $3.7 billion, lifting its share of the GST pool from 24.8% to 27.5%.

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GST share

As a result, Victoria will now receive $1.07 in GST for every $1 raised, up from $0.85 when the GST was first introduced in 2000.

By contrast, NSW will receive only $0.86 for every dollar raised, whereas Queensland will receive only $0.85.

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Victoria’s parasitic nature is also reflected in the state’s ballooning trade deficit.

Victorian exports have grown slowly over the last 20 years, while the state’s imports have doubled.

Victorian trade
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As a result, the Victoria’s trade deficit skyrocketed to $92.9 billion in the year ended Q2 2024:

Victorian trade deficit

You will notice above that Victoria’s trade deficit has ballooned in concert with the state’s soaring population, driven by net overseas migration.

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Victorian population

Victoria’s entire business model involves importing masses of people into Melbourne that require homes, infrastructure, and services. These residents increase imports (e.g., cars, TVs, white goods, etc) without increasing exports, which mostly come from the regions (e.g., agriculture) since the state’s manufacturing industry has largely shuttered.

With Melbourne’s population forecast to swell by 3.5 million by the 2050s to 9 million people, Victoria’s trade deficit will continue to balloon as more imports of people result in more imports of goods.

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Victorian population projection

Victoria (via Melbourne) is effectively draining financial resources from mining states to fund its population ‘Ponzi’.

This ‘Ponzi’ growth model has resulted in perpetual infrastructure bottlenecks and lower living standards for incumbent residents due to rising congestion, reduced amenity, and deteriorating housing conditions.

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Despite the GST windfall, Victoria has also been driven into severe debt as it attempts to build its way out of the never-ending population crush.

Victorian net debt

The Victorian government faces the task of building an economy based on real and sustainable growth that raises the existing population’s living standards.

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The first step is to push the federal government to reduce immigration to a manageable and sustainable level.

Endless mass immigration will literally bankrupt the state and erode living conditions.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.