Trump delivers “pandemic scale” shock to trade

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Goldman with the note.


On Friday 5/9, we hosted a virtual group meeting with the authors of the Logistics Managers Index, Dale and Zac Rogers, who are observing a situation where inventories have built up (as per their surveys of large logistics’ managers) ahead of tariffs and amid the ongoing 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs; at the same time, their survey data indicate expanding inventory costs and warehouse prices.

Inventory cost expansion has been particularly high of late (April/early-May data latest), reminiscent of prior periods with tariff pressures as the authors noted expanding inventory levels are similar to what was seen in the survey data in 2018/2019 and during the pandemic.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.