You need US dollars to buy US assets.
AUD rejected!
Lead boots were made for walking.
Three black crows for gold. Oil bust.
Metals meh.
Mining meh.
EM meh.
Junk sees sunny uplands ahead.
Yields are helping now. Thank Saudi.
Stocks to the moon!
The AUD has turned into the world’s first Costanza coin. It now does the opposite to what it should every day.
If risk is on, it falls. If risk is off, it rises.
Do the opposite. Goldman.
USD: No quiet time.We think the Dollar’s sputtering response to the evolving One Big Beautiful Bill can mostly be attributed to bad timing.
The deficit details look close to expectations, and typically in G10 economies fiscal support together with higher yields is a recipe for currency strength.
In that context, the Dollar’s response to “big and beautiful” so far has been small, but ugly.
The timing of the budget process has led the market to focus on the US’s large and persistent deficit financing needs at a time when investors were already eyeing the durability of foreign demand for US assets.
This has once again led to a concerning EM-likecross-asset response to the news flow.
Yields have clamed down in the last few days cutting DXY a break. I put this largely down to oil, which is playing a key role now in suppressing the child president’s tarifflation.
How long does Constanza Coin last? For the time being at least. The child president is still the only variable in town so doing the opposite – buying DXY when he’s not spitting the dummy and selling it when he does – remains the forex reaction function.
AUD do the opposite!
