Australian dollar slip sliding away

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DXY is taking a breather.

That could not help the AUD.

No lead boots.

Gold up.

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Metals down.

Big miners still look fugly.

EM stocks hit resistance.

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Junk says no problemo.

Yields eased.

Stocks mixed.

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TS Lombard sounds about right today.

The US-China truce removes major USD downside risk. The significant de-escalation in trade tensions between China and the US has seen the dollar stage a rebound facilitated by extremely bearish sentiment, positioning and Fed repricing (the market is now seeing c.two cuts, down from four at the end of April).

The US administration’s more dovish stance on China will fuel hopes that “deals” with other countries can be quickly sealed, and that should boost USD sentiment over the near term.

The China pivot also means that the next leg lower for the dollar will likely require US hard data to deteriorate.

I would guess so. Which will not be very far away as shelves empty and factories run short of parts.

But even then, the FOMO loose now may keep DXY bid as the chase back into stocks persists.

I still expect AUD to grind lower at this point.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.