DXY is struggling mightily to get anywhere.
AUD follows EUR.
Lead boots plod on.
Got to be quick to grab gold these days. Oil in all sorts.
Metals no bueno for growth.
Big miners perfect down channel.
Life for EM?
Not if credit has its way.
Fed cuts are disappearing.
Stocks no likee.
AUD is the new European super-currency.
We’ve seen a good rally in beaten-down US stocks, but how far can it go when so many hold DXY and want to diversify?
Enter EUR.
Europe has a long way to go up in terms of inflow.
Source: EPFR
$248bn of outflows from European equities since 2020. The super-tanker that is flow has just started to turn.
Source: BofA
Goldman.
Our FX strategists viewed the German fiscal announcement as a clear tailwind to the currency, because of the implied uplift to area-wide growth and the revealed change in German policy preferences. They then argued that weaker growth and higher policy uncertainty in the US should disproportionately support the Euro, because of the likely rebalancing of European investors towards domestic assets. Our FX team sees further Euro appreciation ahead, with EUR/USD reaching 1.20 over the next twelve months.
The last time EUR was at 120, AUD was at 0.77 cents.
AUD follows EUR.
