If Albo’s idiots have any brains at all, they will immediately spend their Trump windfall of political capital on embracing Peter Dutton’s gas reservation policies.
Returning Australian gas to eastern states’ use is essential to stabilising inflation, the energy transition, and industrial growth, all KPIs for the renewed government.
In the meantime, there is potentially better news on the Gasmageddon, though not a game changer without reservation policies.
Asian gas prices have been crashing as the trade war rocks markets.
With the rising AUD, the gas net back prices are in free fall at around $14, and LNG import prices are more like $18Gj, down from $24Gj.
However, even now, LNG imports represent a huge new power shock as energy rebates roll off in 2026. Reservation policies are infinitely preferable and more stable.
There is more good news for falling energy prices as “drill, baby, drill” is adopted not in America but in Saudi Arabia.
As Saudi Arabia’s Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addressed his OPEC+ counterparts on a video call to ratify the group’s second huge supply increase in as many months, he invoked a surprising historical precedent: the 1973 oil embargo imposed by major OPEC nations that sent crude prices soaring.
The parallel to today, the prince suggested, was that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had withstood tough times in the past — and its unity was just as crucial now.
That cohesion is being tested. Saturday’s decision to push more output into an already-cratering oil market suggests Riyadh is doubling down on a radical strategy shift: after spending much of the past decade curtailing output to shore up the market, it’s now willing to drive down prices as it seeks to punish members who have cheated on their quotas.
There is more than this going on. With the Trump administration looking to pressure Iran and Venezuela, Saudi Arabia is looking to befriend Washington and seize regional leadership.
OPEC has 6mb/d sitting idle, about half of it Saudi.
Lower prices are just what Trump needs for his trade war, and, ironically, for the Saudis, it will also be trashing Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra as US marginal shale oil is pushed out.
As Brent sinks back into the $50s, gas contract prices will crater too, back to AUD11-12Gj. This will further pressure local gas prices. In a rational market, below $10Gj.
Albo’s idiots must not mistake this as an easing in energy pressures. It is another opportunity to break the gas cartel while it is down.
