JKM LNG futures are still signalling gasmageddon for Australia later this year.
Adjusted for an AUD at 70 cents, plus regasification costs, imported LNG will still be coming in at about $19Gj versus $12Gj today.
The gas cartel will respond to LNG imports by restricting supply so that global prices become the marginal price setter.
Sadly, this madness will coincide with the lifting of energy rebates, so the shock for households through 2026/27 will be huge again.
There is some short-term energy relief coming in falling oil prices, and, therefore, LNG contract prices. Goldman.
Incorporating the ¼mb/d upgrade to our OPEC8+ supply path from July, we have nudged down our oil price forecast by $2-3, with Brent/WTI averaging $60/56 in the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026.
Our key conviction remains that high spare capacity and high recession riskskew the risks to oil prices to the downside despite relatively tight spot fundamentals.
But Albo’s failed $12Gj price cap is still the floor for local gas prices when reservation would drop the price well below $10Gj.
Adopt Peter Dutton’s excellent gas policy now!
