Victoria drives into productivity slow lane

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According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) annual state accounts, Victoria’s per capita GDP fell by 1.2% in 2023-04 and has only risen by 10.4% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008.

per capita gross state product

Victoria’s performance compares poorly against the 1.0% national decline in per capita GDP in 2023-24 and the 14.5% increase recorded since 2008.

Victoria has also experienced the slowest productivity growth in the country since the GFC, rising at less than one-third the rate of New South Wales.

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Victorian productivity growth

After causing the economy to stagnate, the Victorian government has devised a new strategy to impede productivity: lowering the speed limit on residential streets to a mere 30 kmph:

Infrastructure Victoria, the state’s independent advisory body, is proposing the lower limits as part of a strategy to improve road safety and manage increasing congestion linked to population growth…

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Dr Jonathan Spear, Chief Executive of Infrastructure Victoria, highlighted the potential for significantly reducing the road toll.

“A pedestrian struck by a car travelling at 50km/h has an 85 per cent chance of dying. At 30km/h, that risk drops to just 10 per cent,” Dr Spear said…

Dr Lauren Pearson from Monash University’s Sustainable Mobility and Safety Research Group supports the plan, calling it a “cost-effective” way to save lives…

Many roads across Melbourne have seen their speed limits permanently reduced from 60 kph to 40 kph. This decrease in speed has made travel across Melbourne increasingly slow and frustrating.

Reducing speed limits to 30 kph is ludicrous and will raise travel times even further, sapping productivity.

In 2021, independent economist Saul Eslake criticised the Victorian government’s plan to raise fines by 10%, stating that it increased the state’s reliance on draconian policing.

“Victoria is already the state which uses its police force as a branch of the state tax office to a much greater extent than any other state”, Eslake said.

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Victoria’s revenue from traffic cameras and speeding fines reached a five-year high in 2023-24, totalling $528 million, $127 million higher than the previous year.

Fining motorists $247 for going three kilometres over an artificially low 40 kph speed limit is already ludicrous. This claim comes from a Melburnian who has only received one fine in 29 years of driving, not a leadfoot.

Speed fines in Victoria
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Victorian speeding penalties

Lowering speed limits to 30 kph would make driving in Victoria even more painful.

Undoubtedly, the broke Victorian government would install additional speed cameras to increase fine revenue and shore up the state budget.

An online poll published in the Herald-Sun revealed that 95% of readers opposed the proposed 30 kph speed restriction.

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Speed limit poll

Herald-Sun Online poll on 30 kph speed limit.

The Victorian government should do something useful and crack down on the home invasion crime spree afflicting Melbourne.

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That would require actual effort and policing.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.