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In the 2010 federal election, the incumbent Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, won a second term after forming a minority government with three independent MPs.
A result similar to the 2010 federal election looks like the most likely outcome of the upcoming federal election.
The latest Newspoll for The Australian shows that the Coalition holds a 7% lead over Labor on Primary vote.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.