You know an election is coming up when Labor-leaning economist Stephen Koukoulas (the ‘Kouk’) writes a propaganda piece in the Labor-leaning Independent Australia, claiming, “The miraculous Australian economy is the envy of the world”.
Kouk claims, “The economy is kicking off 2025 in a fabulous spot structurally, even though the cyclical impact of high interest rates is seeing a temporary period of sub-trend economic growth”.
“A stocktake on the key economic indicators paints a picture for the Australian economy where any economic pick-up in 2025 and 2026 will be coming from an excellent starting point”.
As expected. Kouk points to Australia’s low unemployment rate of 4% but conveniently ignores the fact that almost all recent job growth in Australia has been taxpayer-funded, most notably via the NDIS.
Kouk also claims that Australia’s “wage growth is rising at what is a solid and sustainable pace of 3.5%. It is a Goldilocks wages scenario — not too hot, not too cold, but just right. “Just right” means that workers are getting pay increases that are above the rate of inflation and it is a level of wage growth that is consistent with full employment”.
Of course, Kouk failed to mention that real wages have experienced their largest-ever decline and are not projected to recover to their former level for a decade.
“As that campaign hots up, the Government should be congratulated for having the structure and framework of the economy in such good shape that the next round of reforms will yield even more benefits”, Kouk claims.
The article conveniently failed to mention that Australians have endured the longest per capita recession in recorded history, with real per capita GDP declining for seven consecutive quarters.
This is strange because Kouk lambasted the former Coalition government when per capita GDP briefly fell in 2019.
Kouk, in 2019, acknowledged that “as a measure of individual living standards, per capita GDP growth is superior to headline GDP growth. When per capita GDP falls for two quarters, it’s a bad thing”.
Seven consecutive quarterly declines in per capita GDP must be catastrophic, then.
Kouk’s article also conveniently ignored the record decline in Australia’s real per capita household disposable income under Labor.
Australia’s decline in real per capita household disposable income is unmatched across the developed world.
No major advanced nation has experienced such a significant decline in real per capita household disposable income.
Finally, Kouk has conveniently ignored the collapse in Australia’s labour productivity, which is again amongst the very worst in the developed world.
If the Coalition were in government, Kouk would be spitting venom about how the Australian economy is in dire straits.
