Victoria is a workers’ wasteland

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Last week, before the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the July labour force survey, Alex Joiner posted the below chart showing how Victoria had the highest unemployment rate and lowest private sector wage growth out of the states:

Private Sector wage growth and unemployment

Joiner also published the following chart showing how Victoria’s unemployment rate (4.55%) was well above the rest of the nation (3.88%) in July.

Unemployment rates
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Separate data from Jobs & Skills Australia likewise showed that Victoria recorded the sharpest decline in job vacancies in the nation in July (down by 7.0%), as well as through the year (down 32.1%):

IVI state summary

Last Thursday, the ABS released the July labour force survey, which was more of the same, with Victoria’s unemployment rate edging higher to 4.60%, well above the national average of 4.22%:

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Unemployment rates

SEEK also released its July employment data, which is summarised below by Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro.

As shown in the following chart, Victoria along with NSW experienced the sharpest decline in new job ads out of Australia’s states and are now tracking well below pre-pandemic levels:

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More concerning, the number of applications per job ad has risen the most out of Australia’s states, suggesting the labour market is oversupplied with workers:

Applications per job ad
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Based on the above data, Victoria is the worst state in Australia for seeking a job.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.