Roy Morgan’s unemployment estimate, like the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), has for most of the year been out of whack with other measures on Australia’s labour market:
However, Roy Morgan’s survey appears to have corrected back to reality, with its unemployment estimate rising to 10.1% in July, its highest reading since August 2023:
In July 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 294,000 to 1,597,000 (up 1.8% to 10.1% of the workforce). This is the highest level of unemployment for a year since August 2023 and was caused by a significant decline in part-time jobs during July after the end of the Mid-Year sales.
Part-time employment in July dropped by 176,000 to 4,765,000 – the lowest level of part-time employment for a year since July 2023. Although full-time employment increased marginally in July, up 24,000 to 9,390,000, overall employment for the month dropped by 152,000 to 14,155,000.
Roy Morgan’s estimate of unemployment and underemployment (19.8% in July) also increased to its highest level for nearly four years since October 2020, during the early period of the pandemic.
Commenting on the result, Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine noted that “surging population growth” is the biggest factor influencing the labour market, with the population aged 14-plus estimated to have grown by 687,000 over the past year:
“These latest figures for July show that the employment market is clearly struggling to provide jobs to all those in the rapidly growing workforce”, Levine said.
It will be interesting to see whether Thursday’s official ABS labour force figures for July also record a significant increase in unemployment.
