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Goldman sees a Harris victory now.
Where things stand: Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by around 1.5pp in national polling averages and is very narrowly ahead in the swing state that would provide the winning electoral vote (currently this appears to be Pennsylvania).
Prediction markets imply 52-54% odds that Harris wins in November.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.